Theory Protocol
The perpetual prediction engine
Theory combines elements of perpetual markets and prediction markets to facilitate real-time trading for predicting emergent events such as AI superintelligence, and major scientific and medical breakthroughs.
Open-ended markets with no expiry
Long/short perpetual exposure allows for convenient continuous exposure to an underlying narrative.
Composable structure
Markets are composed of various smaller predictions, providing open-ended granular market resolution.
Retroactive rewards for timely conviction
A reward pool accumulates and is retroactively paid out to recent longs on confirmed event completion.
Prediction feeds
External prediction data seeds factors and keeps each micro-market priced with live odds.
Example markets
Built for timing-sensitive, multi-stage events.
Each market publishes its milestone factors and the conservative final trigger. Longs are rewarded for being early; shorts pay to say “not yet” until the end-state is confirmed.
AGI achieved
Deadlines make AGI markets gameable; perps can’t resolve on achievement or pay for precursor evidence.
Approach: Theory defines factors for lab claims, benchmark batteries, replications, expert consensus, long-dated prediction market thresholds, and a conservative encyclopedia update as the final trigger.
Milestone path
- Major lab claim → micro-payout
- Benchmark suite exceeded → micro-payout
- Independent replication → micro-payout
- Expert consensus statement → micro-payout
- Prediction markets >80% for 90 days → micro-payout
- Encyclopedia/Wikipedia update → final payout
Cancer cure
Clinical timelines stretch for years; fixed expiries misprice progress and perps can’t resolve on approvals.
Approach: Factors cover Phase III success, replication, regulatory approval, guideline updates, prediction-market thresholds, and canonical medical references updating to ‘curable’.
Milestone path
- Phase III durable remission → micro-payout
- Independent replication → micro-payout
- Regulatory approval → micro-payout
- Guideline updates (NCCN/ESMO) → micro-payout
- Prediction markets high for sustained period → micro-payout
- Canonical reference update → final payout
Foundational physics
Paradigm shifts emerge through anomalies, replications, and society consensus; legacy markets expire before truth is settled.
Approach: Theory factors capture initial anomaly, multi-lab replication, peer-reviewed publication, society statements, prediction-market thresholds, and textbook updates as the final trigger.
Milestone path
- Credible anomaly claim → micro-payout
- Replication across labs → micro-payout
- High-impact publication → micro-payout
- Physics society recognition → micro-payout
- Prediction markets sustained >X% → micro-payout
- Textbook/encyclopedia update → final payout
Trade Your Theory
Trade Theory’s perpetual, milestone-aware markets. Earn for being early on every factor and on the conservative final confirmation.
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